Muaz Kalaycı: Middle East Surge Is Reshaping the Citizenship by Investment Market
The most pronounced growth in the global citizenship by investment sector is now coming from the Middle East. Applications originating from the region have claimed a steadily larger share of total global volume over the past two years, a shift that is already influencing where programme pricing is headed and how established programmes are managing capacity.
According to Muaz Kalaycı, founder of DKD Global, applicants pursuing a second citizenship from the Middle East differ sharply in their priorities from European or Latin American counterparts. “This demand is not primarily about passport rankings or even tax planning,” says Kalaycı. “Clients here want an alternative base for the family, capital spread across more than one jurisdiction, and a result delivered on a firm timeline. When those three requirements come together, programme selection becomes a far more technical exercise.”
CARIBBEAN PROGRAMMES UNDER PRESSURE FROM RISING DEMAND
Saint Kitts and Nevis, Dominica, and Saint Lucia remain the most frequently selected programmes among this applicant profile, largely because processing timelines are predictable and due diligence procedures are well established. Dominica’s threshold begins at around $92,000 for a single applicant. Saint Kitts and Nevis starts from approximately $269,000 and carries visa-free or visa-on-arrival access to more than 149 countries, including the Schengen Area and the United Kingdom. Saint Lucia sits between the two on both cost and travel access.
The supply and demand balance has shifted firmly in favour of programme operators. All three Caribbean programmes raised their investment thresholds at least once since 2022, and processing times have extended as governments face growing scrutiny from international compliance bodies. Malta, which provides the only route to EU citizenship among the major investment programmes, continues to see demand outpace its strict annual quota. The programme operates under a cap of 400 successful applicants per year, a ceiling that has contributed to wait times stretching well beyond initial estimates. For investors with an EU residency or business establishment goal, this scarcity has made early engagement with the process considerably more important than it was even three years ago.
“The clients who waited two years are now paying more and waiting longer,” Kalaycı says. “That is the direction this market consistently moves in.”
TWO DISTINCT APPLICANT PROFILES: TURKEY AND THE ARAB WORLD
The Middle Eastern applicant pool breaks into two distinct groups, each arriving at the citizenship question from a different starting point.
Turkish applicants have been among the most active in the sector for several years. The primary driver is not political instability in the conventional sense but rather a structural concern about currency exposure, asset portability, and the limitations of a Turkish passport for business travel into Europe and the United States. Most Turkish applicants are established business owners who have already internationalised their operations and are now seeking a legal framework that matches the geographic reality of how they already live and work. A Caribbean citizenship provides a second document that travels where a Turkish passport cannot, while also creating a legitimate holding structure outside the Turkish financial system.
Arab world applicants, particularly those from the Gulf states, Lebanon, and Egypt, arrive with a different set of priorities. Gulf nationals, especially from the UAE and Saudi Arabia, are often motivated by long-term estate planning and the desire to secure European or British educational pathways for children. The UAE passport already carries exceptional visa-free access, so the second citizenship conversation for Emirati applicants is rarely about travel. It is almost entirely about jurisdictional diversification and generational wealth planning. Lebanese and Egyptian applicants, by contrast, are frequently responding to more immediate pressures: capital controls, currency devaluation, and in some cases the active deterioration of the domestic political environment. For this segment, speed of processing and certainty of outcome carry considerably more weight than programme prestige.
“Turkish and Arab clients both end up at the same programmes, but they come through very different doors,” says Kalaycı. “Understanding which door someone came through changes everything about how you structure the advice.”
THE COST OF CHOOSING THE WRONG PROGRAMME
As application costs rise, the consequences of a poor programme match are becoming more severe. In family applications, a detail as specific as a child’s age under a particular programme’s eligibility rules can force the entire process to restart weeks into submission. Some applicants have found programme terms changed mid-application, requiring revised documentation and in some cases additional investment to meet updated thresholds.
“A client placed in the wrong programme does not only lose money,” Kalaycı says. “They lose time, and sometimes they lose the window entirely. Our role is to ask the right questions before anything is signed, not after.”
NEW PROGRAMMES ON THE HORIZON
Botswana and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines are both advancing towards programme launches in the near term. Botswana’s anticipated programme is expected to position itself as an entry point for investors seeking African residency and citizenship alongside broader southern African business access. Saint Vincent, already part of the CARICOM framework, would join its Caribbean neighbours in offering a route that advisors already active in the region know well.
Historical patterns in the sector suggest that new market entrants absorb additional demand without meaningfully relieving pricing pressure on established programmes. Compliance costs, government revenue expectations, and reputational oversight continue to push thresholds upward regardless of how many programmes are available.
Industry estimates place global qualifying investment volume in the billions of dollars during 2025, with the Middle East accounting for a growing proportion of total applicant numbers, though figures vary across methodologies and programme definitions.
For investors who have been considering their options without committing, Kalaycı’s view is straightforward: “In this market, the most expensive decision is usually the one that keeps being postponed.”
